Atheism: The Null Hypothesis
Question from Ted:
I’m debating a friend who, although he is surrounded by scientific-minded people in University, chooses to embrace Christianity. I want to demonstrate to him that in any scientific research condition, the null hypothesis is favored over the alternative hypothesis by default, unless contradictory research can be produced. This would indicate that before the research is even commenced, it is more reasonable to assume that the null hypothesis is true than to remain undecided or accept the alternative hypothesis.
What are some good references that I can use to get this idea across to him?
Answer:
It’s a good way to look at the question of gods, and nobody’s ever challenged me on it when I’ve used it before (not, I think, on ATA). If someone did fight me, though, I think I know how they’d do it.
Any textbook on high school or college/university statistics would be sufficient to give your friend the necessary grounding in the concept of null and alternative hypotheses. This is the easy part, because what you say above is straightforward and self-evident; the null hypothesis by definition is what you accept to be the case if no contrary evidence is found. The hard part is convincing a believer that
1. the absence of gods is the null hypothesis, and
2. there is no contrary evidence to justify rejecting it.
Regarding #1, a huge amount of believers are of the opinion that the burden of proof is on atheists because they can’t imagine the world, life, art, love, logic, etc. having come about without a god, and therefore (though they don’t often put it like this) atheism is an alternative hypothesis which needs to be supported with proof that a god wasn’t/isn’t necessary. This response is essentially equivalent to the cosmological, transcendental and/or design arguments for gods, which I and many others have written about before.
Regarding #2, there’s a huge variety of anecdotes and phenomena that believers present as evidence for gods and therefore good reason to reject atheism as a null hypothesis, whether or not it’s actually good evidence or evidence at all. Your friend is liable and entitled to present you with just about anything, so you’ll have to take it as it comes.
The well-known text which comes closest to treating the issue in this manner is God: The Failed Hypothesis by Victor Stenger. So that’s the one I recommend to you and your friend. Read it yourself first, obviously.
- SmartLX
feeno
June 26th, 2010 at 12:54 pm #
LX
I don’t agree with you, but at the same time I like the way you think. Does that make sense? It’s like if you were a Christian you’d think like me, and if I were an atheist I’d probably think like you? I usually find it hard to disagree with you, and like me, you bring up the simple but philosophical types of arguments .
Look, I will never be able to prove to you that God exists. matter of fact Billy Graham can’t do it either. No matter how much evidence there is for Christianity sooner or later it’s clear we have to have some faith.
But that also works both ways, just like null and alternative hypothesis. My daughter was house sitting this week and she saw a book titled “I don’t have enough faith to be an Atheist”.
What do we do about this? I see your friend who is surrounded by many intellectuals and who is a bright guy himself and yet he chooses to keep his “faith”. I find that average or normal. You see it and think, how can this smart guy not realize the errors of his ways.
If we both keep discussing these issues I think that’s a good start. And this is a good place we can learn from each other?
Good thoughts, peace, feeno
SmartLX
June 26th, 2010 at 3:36 pm #
Funny you should mention I Don’t Have Enough Faith to Be an Atheist. That book is exactly the response to #1 I’ve described: a claim that the lack of evidence for atheism means that atheists have more faith than theists, and therefore theism is the null hypothesis. It reaches this conclusion mainly via the cosmological and design arguments. There are links above to my responses to those. I’ve also got a piece on evidence for atheism.
I think that if I were still a Christian, I think it would be because of emotions which had overcome my reason on the matter and dragged it to the apologetic position. As it happens, I’m not currently prey to those particular emotions.
Incidentally, Feeno, there are a great many people who think they can prove God exists. Have you ever picked any of them up on it?
feeno
June 27th, 2010 at 3:57 am #
LX
To me it seems clear there is a God. (that doesn’t mean there is one). but I don’t see how we can prove it? If there was wouldn’t we all be Believers? I have heard of some strange stories that have happened by people claiming proof. But if anything that would only prove it to them, unless of course there are witnesses?
I think by human standards atheists might(?) have an argument. Because the Bible makes it clear that without faith it is impossible to please God. But by God’s standards (If there is a God), the Hey God you didn’t give me the “enough faith gene” in my DNA. That wont work as any type of excuse?
But that would be a good topic, “Stories that prove God is Real”.
Late, feen
SmartLX
June 27th, 2010 at 10:50 am #
If the existence of God can be proved, it may simply be that nobody has succeeded in proving it yet. Proofs are not necessarily easy or obvious. You see it all the time in mathematics; an apparent truism is enshrined as a mere “conjecture” (e.g. Bertrand’s conjecture/postulate) and becomes a theorem when proved years or decades later after much effort.
Continuing the comparison to mathematics, a proof may be based on logic rather than evidence that can be witnessed. The ontological argument is an attempted proof of this type. Regardless of the type of attempted proof, I feature them here when I come across them.
As I’ve been saying a lot lately, Feeno, God according to Christianity and most other religions wants us to believe in Him. If that’s true then this all-powerful being is not getting what He wants, and that is fundamentally ridiculous. Especially since belief is not a choice, and therefore in a Christian universe whether we believe is apparently up to Him.
SmartLX
July 6th, 2010 at 4:54 pm #
Meanwhile, Ted’s asked the same question on the other site where I write: Ask the AtheistS. I won’t answer it again there, but he’ll get some different perspectives.